Bolívar v Universitario de Vinto: analysis and our pick
Primera División · tomorrow 02:00 · Estadio Hernando Siles. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Bolívar in good form
Bolívar have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–3 away defeat at Real Potosí and a 1–0 away win at Nacional Potosí. Universitario de Vinto have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over San Antonio Bulo Bulo and a 1–3 home defeat to Real Oruro.
The head-to-head favours Bolívar
In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Bolívar, 1 draw, 1 for Universitario de Vinto, with 3.6 goals a game. Most recently: Universitario de Vinto 3–2 Bolívar (16 May 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 70%. Bolívar score 1.4 and concede 0.8 a game, Universitario de Vinto 1.6 and 2.4. The Poisson model expects 2.6 + 1.1 = 3.7 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Bolívar · 68%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 71%). Most likely score: 2–1.
Why these picks?
Bolívar have the highest probability (68%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 71% from the same lambdas. 2–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Bolívar — last game: Away to Nacional Potosí (1-0) they had 43% of the shots (12 to 16, on target 4-5). From 4 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 5 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 4 they averaged 53% of the shots and 36% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 67% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 6% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Universitario de Vinto — last game: Against San Antonio Bulo Bulo (2-1) they had 50% of the shots (15 to 15, on target 4-3). From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 3 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Universitario de Vinto). Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 67% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 120% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs, 2 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.