AS Roma v Cagliari: analysis and our pick
Serie A · tomorrow 21:45 · Stadio Olimpico. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Cagliari have a chance to respond
AS Roma have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–3 away draw with Napoli and a 4–0 home win over Slovan Bratislava. Cagliari have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–2 home defeat to Bologna and a 0–4 away defeat at Monza.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 40%. AS Roma score 2.4 and concede 1.4 a game, Cagliari 0.8 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 0.9 = 2.9 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · AS Roma · 60%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 80%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
AS Roma have the highest probability (60%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 80% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
AS Roma — last game: Away to Napoli (3-3) they had 62% of the shots (24 to 15, on target 4-9) and 61% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 3 from 9 on target. 🟥 Red card on 90′ for Napoli (Massimiliano Allegri): the opponent played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 59% of the shots and 56% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 43% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Cagliari — last game: Against Bologna (0-2) they had 29% of the shots (4 to 10, on target 1-5) and 57% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 5 on target. 30′–45′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 45′–60′: under 100% of the pressure → conceded on 57′. 60′–75′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 27% of the shots and 33% of the shots on target. They turn 27% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.