America Mineiro v Cuiaba: analysis and our pick

America Mineiro looking for a response

America Mineiro have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Operario-PR and a 0–1 away defeat at Criciuma. Cuiaba have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Londrina and a 0–1 home defeat to Avai.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 60%, Over 2.5 30%, both teams scored 20%. America Mineiro score 0.2 and concede 1.0 a game, Cuiaba 0.4 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 0.9 + 0.9 = 1.8 goals.

Our pick

Draw (X) · 36%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 72%). Most likely score: 0–0.

Why these picks?

The 1-X-2 probabilities are close and the draw comes out on top in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 72% from the same lambdas. 0–0 is the most likely score (18%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

America Mineiro — last game: Against Operario-PR (1-0) they had 68% of the shots (21 to 10, on target 5-2). From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 42% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 7% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Cuiaba — last game: Away to Londrina (0-1) they had 66% of the shots (23 to 12, on target 7-2). From 7 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 8% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 28% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.