Ağrı 1970 v İstanbulspor: analysis and our pick

İstanbulspor have a chance to respond

Ağrı 1970 have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Niğde Belediyesispor and a 0–2 home defeat to Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu. İstanbulspor have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–5 away defeat at Muğlaspor and a 0–2 home defeat to Antalyaspor.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 40%. Ağrı 1970 score 1.0 and concede 1.0 a game, İstanbulspor 0.6 and 2.4. The Poisson model expects 2.1 + 0.9 = 3.0 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Ağrı 1970 · 64%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 82%). Most likely score: 2–0.

Why these picks?

Ağrı 1970 have the highest probability (64%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 82% from the same lambdas. 2–0 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

İstanbulspor — last game: Away to Muğlaspor (0-5) they had 52% of the shots (12 to 11, on target 3-6) and 63% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 5 from 6 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 60′–75′: under 87% of the pressure → the defence held. 75′–90′: pressed with 69% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 44% of the shots and 38% of the shots on target. They turn 19% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 46% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs.