Waterhouse v Dunbeholden: analysis and our pick

Dunbeholden have a chance to respond

Waterhouse have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Racing United and a 1–1 home draw with Tru-Juice. Dunbeholden have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–3 away defeat at Tivoli Gardens and a 1–0 home win over Molynes United.

The head-to-head favours Waterhouse

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Waterhouse, 1 draw, 1 for Dunbeholden, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Waterhouse 4–0 Dunbeholden (6 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 20%. Waterhouse score 2.0 and concede 0.4 a game, Dunbeholden 0.2 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 2.1 + 0.4 = 2.4 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Waterhouse · 76%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 56%). Most likely score: 2–0.

Why these picks?

Waterhouse have the highest probability (76%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 56% from the same lambdas. 2–0 is the most likely score (19%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Dunbeholden — last game: Against Molynes United (1-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots..