Suchitepéquez v Aurora: analysis and our pick

Suchitepéquez looking for a response

Suchitepéquez have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Marquense and a 1–1 home draw with Deportivo San Pedro. Aurora have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–1 home win over Deportivo San Pedro and a 2–1 away win at Comunicaciones.

An even head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Suchitepéquez, 1 draw, 2 for Aurora, with 2.6 goals a game. Most recently: Aurora 3–2 Suchitepéquez (23 Aug 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 75%. Suchitepéquez score 1.0 and concede 2.4 a game, Aurora 2.0 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.6 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Suchitepéquez · 38%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 84%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Suchitepéquez have the highest probability (38%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 84% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Suchitepéquez — last game: Against Mixco (3-3) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Aurora — last game: Against Xelajú (2-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Xelajú). Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 2.5 1.85 → 1.90 (+2.7%, drifting) · Over 2.5 1.95 → 1.90 (-2.6%, backed).