Sevilla v Osasuna: analysis and our pick
La Liga · tomorrow 22:00 · Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Sevilla looking for a response
Sevilla have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–4 away defeat at Real Madrid and a 3–3 away draw with Levante. Osasuna have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Racing Santander and a 2–5 away defeat at Real Betis.
The head-to-head favours Osasuna
In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Sevilla, 2 draws, 2 for Osasuna, with 1.8 goals a game. Most recently: Osasuna 2–1 Sevilla (26 Apr 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 60%. Sevilla score 1.4 and concede 2.6 a game, Osasuna 1.0 and 2.4. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 1.5 = 3.4 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Sevilla · 46%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 67%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Sevilla have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 67% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Sevilla — last game: Away to Real Madrid (1-4) they had 42% of the shots (11 to 15, on target 5-8). From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 4 from 8 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 43% of the shots and 42% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 37% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Osasuna — last game: Against Racing Santander (2-0) they had 69% of the shots (20 to 9, on target 7-1). From 7 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 0 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 40% of the shots and 45% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.