Santa Clara v Benfica: analysis and our pick
Primeira Liga · tomorrow 20:45 · Estádio de São Miguel. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Santa Clara in good form
Santa Clara have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–3 away defeat at Mafra and a 1–0 away win at Casa Pia. Benfica have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–1 away win at Omonia Nicosia and a 4–1 home win over Celtic.
The head-to-head favours Benfica
In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Santa Clara, 1 draw, 4 for Benfica, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Santa Clara 1–2 Benfica (13 Feb 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 55%. Santa Clara score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game, Benfica 2.6 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.9 = 3.2 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Benfica · 52%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 84%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Benfica have the highest probability (52%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 84% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Santa Clara — last game: Away to Mafra (2-3) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 65% of the shots and 58% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 64% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Benfica — last game: Away to Omonia Nicosia (4-1) they had 77% of the shots (23 to 7, on target 10-5) and 64% possession. From 10 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 1 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 59% of the shots and 56% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 45% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 22% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.