San Carlos v Deportivo Saprissa: analysis and our pick

San Carlos in good form

San Carlos have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–3 away draw with Sporting San Jose and a 1–2 home defeat to Inter San Carlos. Deportivo Saprissa have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Firpo and a 0–1 away defeat at CS Cartagines.

The head-to-head favours Deportivo Saprissa

In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for San Carlos, 0 draws, 5 for Deportivo Saprissa, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Deportivo Saprissa 2–1 San Carlos (3 Aug 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 60%, Over 2.5 40%, both teams scored 35%. San Carlos score 1.6 and concede 1.0 a game, Deportivo Saprissa 1.6 and 0.4. The Poisson model expects 1.0 + 1.3 = 2.3 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Deportivo Saprissa · 41%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 59%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Deportivo Saprissa have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 59% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

San Carlos — last game: Away to CS Herediano (1-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Red cards: 1 theirs. Deportivo Saprissa — last game: Away to Escorpiones Belén (0-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots..