Rizespor v Trabzonspor: analysis and our pick
Süper Lig · tomorrow 18:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Trabzonspor have a chance to respond
Rizespor have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Çorum FK and a 0–3 home defeat to Fenerbahce. Trabzonspor have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Hearts and a 2–0 home win over Besiktas.
The head-to-head favours Trabzonspor
In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Rizespor, 0 draws, 4 for Trabzonspor, with 3.4 goals a game. Most recently: Trabzonspor 1–0 Rizespor (14 Mar 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 30%. Rizespor score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game, Trabzonspor 2.2 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.0 + 1.7 = 2.7 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Trabzonspor · 51%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 77%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Trabzonspor have the highest probability (51%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 77% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Rizespor — last game: Away to Çorum FK (1-2) they had 50% of the shots (10 to 10, on target 4-4). From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 40% of the shots and 41% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 47% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs. Trabzonspor — last game: Against Hearts (2-0) they had 52% of the shots (11 to 10, on target 5-1) and 61% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 🟥 Red card on 90′ for Trabzonspor (S. Lopes Cabral): they played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 58% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 39% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 15% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 2 theirs.
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