Real Estelí v Managua: analysis and our pick

Managua have a chance to respond

Real Estelí have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–3 away defeat at Walter Ferretti and a 1–1 home draw with Jalapa. Managua have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 4–1 home win over Matagalpa and a 3–2 home win over San Marcos.

The head-to-head favours Real Estelí

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Real Estelí, 1 draw, 1 for Managua, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Managua 1–1 Real Estelí (11 Sept 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 60%. Real Estelí score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game, Managua 3.0 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.8 = 3.1 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Managua · 50%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 83%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Managua have the highest probability (50%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 83% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Real Estelí — last game: Away to Matagalpa (4-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Managua — last game: Away to Jalapa (1-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots..

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Managua) 2.45 → 2.90 (+18.4%, drifting) · 1 (Real Estelí) 2.45 → 2.10 (-14.3%, backed) · Double chance X2 1.44 → 1.60 (+11.1%, drifting) · Double chance 1X 1.44 → 1.30 (-9.7%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.