Real Apodaca v Guerreros del Pacifico: analysis and our pick

Real Apodaca looking for a response

Real Apodaca have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–3 away defeat at FC Santiago and a 0–1 home defeat to Correcaminos UAT II. Guerreros del Pacifico have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–2 away win at Calor de San Pedro and a 3–3 away draw with Real Refineros.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 78%, Over 2.5 56%, both teams scored 50%. Real Apodaca score 0.8 and concede 1.8 a game, Guerreros del Pacifico 2.0 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 1.7 = 3.7 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Real Apodaca · 42%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 71%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Real Apodaca have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 71% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Real Apodaca — last game: Against Correcaminos UAT II (0-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Real Apodaca). Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Red cards: 1 theirs. Guerreros del Pacifico — last game: Against Delfines Coatzacoalcos (0-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots..