Portland Timbers II v Ventura County: analysis and our pick

Ventura County have a chance to respond

Portland Timbers II have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over St. Louis City II and a 1–1 away draw with Tacoma Defiance. Ventura County have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–2 home win over Minnesota United II and a 1–2 away defeat at Real Monarchs.

The head-to-head favours Ventura County

In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Portland Timbers II, 4 draws, 1 for Ventura County, with 3.8 goals a game. Most recently: Ventura County 2–2 Portland Timbers II (24 Aug 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 60%. Portland Timbers II score 1.2 and concede 0.6 a game, Ventura County 2.2 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.5 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Ventura County · 39%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 79%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Ventura County have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 79% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Portland Timbers II — last game: Against Austin II (2-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Portland Timbers II). Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Ventura County) 3.60 → 3.20 (-11.1%, backed) · 1 (Portland Timbers II) 1.73 → 1.90 (+9.8%, drifting) · X (draw) 3.90 → 3.75 (-3.8%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.