Paris Saint Germain v Lyon: analysis and our pick

Paris Saint Germain in good form

Paris Saint Germain have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 4–2 home win over Barcelona and a 3–1 away win at Strasbourg. Lyon have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–3 away defeat at 1899 Hoffenheim and a 2–1 home win over Nice.

The head-to-head favours Paris Saint Germain

In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for Paris Saint Germain, 0 draws, 1 for Lyon, with 4.0 goals a game. Most recently: Paris Saint Germain 1–2 Lyon (19 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 85%, both teams scored 80%. Paris Saint Germain score 3.2 and concede 1.4 a game, Lyon 2.0 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 1.3 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Paris Saint Germain · 50%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 84%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Paris Saint Germain have the highest probability (50%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 84% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Paris Saint Germain — last game: Against Barcelona (4-2) they had 55% of the shots (22 to 18, on target 15-5). From 15 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 2 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 56% of the shots and 63% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Lyon — last game: Away to 1899 Hoffenheim (0-3) they had 28% of the shots (8 to 21, on target 2-8) and 56% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 3 from 8 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 43% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target. They turn 42% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.