Oriente Petrolero v The Strongest: analysis and our pick

Oriente Petrolero in good form

Oriente Petrolero have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–2 home win over Nacional Potosí and a 1–1 away draw with Guabirá. The Strongest have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Always Ready and a 2–1 home win over Always Ready.

The head-to-head favours The Strongest

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Oriente Petrolero, 1 draw, 3 for The Strongest, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Oriente Petrolero 1–1 The Strongest (1 Oct 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 70%. Oriente Petrolero score 1.6 and concede 1.0 a game, The Strongest 1.8 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.3 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Oriente Petrolero · 43%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 79%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Oriente Petrolero have the highest probability (43%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 79% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Oriente Petrolero — last game: Away to Guabirá (1-1) they had 59% of the shots (17 to 12, on target 6-2). From 6 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 1 from 2 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Guabirá). Over the last 4 they averaged 65% of the shots and 71% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 42% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 60% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 2 for opponents. The Strongest — last game: Against Always Ready (2-1) they had 42% of the shots (11 to 15, on target 4-4). From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 43% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target. They turn 89% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 75% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 5.50 → 5.00 (-9.1%, backed) · Double chance X2 1.83 → 1.91 (+4.4%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.50 → 2.40 (-4%, backed) · 1 (Oriente Petrolero) 1.91 → 1.85 (-3.1%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.