Lobos Upnfm v CD Olimpia: analysis and our pick

Lobos Upnfm in good form

Lobos Upnfm have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–0 away win at Atletico Independiente and a 0–0 home draw with CD Marathon. CD Olimpia have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at CS Cartagines and a 2–1 home win over Real Espana.

The head-to-head favours CD Olimpia

In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Lobos Upnfm, 1 draw, 4 for CD Olimpia, with 1.6 goals a game. Most recently: CD Olimpia 2–0 Lobos Upnfm (3 Aug 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 35%. Lobos Upnfm score 1.4 and concede 0.4 a game, CD Olimpia 2.0 and 0.4. The Poisson model expects 0.9 + 1.2 = 2.1 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · CD Olimpia · 41%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 65%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

CD Olimpia have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 65% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Lobos Upnfm — last game: Against CD Marathon (0-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. CD Olimpia — last game: Away to Génesis (1-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots..

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Lobos Upnfm) 4.10 → 3.75 (-8.5%, backed) · 2 (CD Olimpia) 1.70 → 1.80 (+5.9%, drifting) · X (draw) 3.50 → 3.40 (-2.9%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.