LD Alajuelense v Perez Zeledon: analysis and our pick
Primera División · tomorrow 02:00 · Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Perez Zeledon have a chance to respond
LD Alajuelense have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with CD Motagua and a 3–2 away win at Inter San Carlos. Perez Zeledon have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–3 home defeat to CS Herediano and a 1–4 home defeat to Escorpiones Belén.
The head-to-head favours LD Alajuelense
In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for LD Alajuelense, 2 draws, 1 for Perez Zeledon, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Perez Zeledon 1–1 LD Alajuelense (30 Aug 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 60%. LD Alajuelense score 2.0 and concede 0.8 a game, Perez Zeledon 0.6 and 2.4. The Poisson model expects 1.9 + 0.9 = 2.8 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · LD Alajuelense · 59%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 78%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
LD Alajuelense have the highest probability (59%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 78% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
LD Alajuelense — last game: Against Inter San Carlos (5-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Perez Zeledon — last game: Away to Inter San Carlos (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 2.25 → 2.50 (+11.1%, drifting) · Under 1.5 5.00 → 4.50 (-10%, backed) · X (draw) 4.75 → 4.33 (-8.8%, backed) · Under 2.5 2.40 → 2.25 (-6.2%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.