La Luz v Miramar: analysis and our pick
Segunda División · tomorrow 00:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
La Luz in good form
La Luz have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Tacuarembo and a 1–1 home draw with Plaza Colonia. Miramar have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–1 away win at Eastern Suburbs and a 1–0 home win over Cerrito.
The head-to-head favours La Luz
In the last 3 meetings: 2 wins for La Luz, 1 draw, 0 for Miramar, with 2.3 goals a game. Most recently: Miramar 0–1 La Luz (27 Jul 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 40%, both teams scored 55%. La Luz score 1.4 and concede 1.0 a game, Miramar 2.0 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.3 = 2.8 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · La Luz · 39%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 78%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
La Luz have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 78% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
La Luz — last game: Away to Tacuarembo (1-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 3 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Miramar — last game: Away to Atenas (1-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots..
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.