Galatasaray v Fenerbahce: analysis and our pick

Galatasaray in good form

Galatasaray have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–2 away win at Lille and a 1–0 away win at Gençlerbirliği S.K.. Fenerbahce have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Slavia Praha and a 3–0 home win over Alanyaspor.

The head-to-head favours Galatasaray

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Galatasaray, 2 draws, 1 for Fenerbahce, with 2.0 goals a game. Most recently: Galatasaray 3–0 Fenerbahce (26 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 50%. Galatasaray score 2.4 and concede 2.0 a game, Fenerbahce 2.0 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.5 = 3.0 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Fenerbahce · 37%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 82%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Fenerbahce have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 82% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Galatasaray — last game: Away to Lille (4-2) they had 42% of the shots (10 to 14, on target 4-5) and 45% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 2 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 55% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 40% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs. Fenerbahce — last game: Against Slavia Praha (2-2) they had 50% of the shots (15 to 15, on target 4-4). From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 50% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2.