Diriangén v H&H Export: analysis and our pick

Diriangén in good form

Diriangén have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at Rancho Santana and a 3–1 away win at UNAN Managua. H&H Export have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–4 home defeat to Jalapa and a 2–0 home win over Rancho Santana.

An even head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Diriangén, 1 draw, 2 for H&H Export, with 1.8 goals a game. Most recently: H&H Export 0–1 Diriangén (11 Sept 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 40%. Diriangén score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game, H&H Export 1.2 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.4 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · H&H Export · 37%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 79%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

H&H Export have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 79% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Diriangén — last game: Against Walter Ferretti (2-4) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. H&H Export — last game: Away to San Marcos (2-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots..

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (H&H Export) 8.50 → 6.00 (-29.4%, backed) · Double chance X2 3.60 → 2.60 (-27.8%, backed) · X (draw) 5.25 → 4.33 (-17.5%, backed) · 1 (Diriangén) 1.22 → 1.40 (+14.8%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.