Deportivo La Guaira v Metropolitanos FC: analysis and our pick
Primera División · tomorrow 01:30 · Estadio Brigido Iriarte. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Deportivo La Guaira looking for a response
Deportivo La Guaira have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Aragua FC and a 1–2 home defeat to Trujillanos FC. Metropolitanos FC have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–1 home draw with Anzoátegui FC and a 2–2 away draw with Estudiantes de Merida FC.
The head-to-head favours Deportivo La Guaira
In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Deportivo La Guaira, 2 draws, 1 for Metropolitanos FC, with 3.2 goals a game. Most recently: Deportivo La Guaira 1–2 Metropolitanos FC (6 Aug 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 55%. Deportivo La Guaira score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game, Metropolitanos FC 2.6 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 1.6 = 2.8 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Metropolitanos FC · 42%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 79%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Metropolitanos FC have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 79% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Deportivo La Guaira — last game: Against Trujillanos FC (1-2) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Metropolitanos FC — last game: Away to Zamora FC (3-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Metropolitanos FC). Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 3.50 → 3.75 (+7.1%, drifting) · Under 2.5 1.85 → 1.95 (+5.4%, drifting) · Over 2.5 1.95 → 1.85 (-5.1%, backed) · Not both to score 2.00 → 2.10 (+5%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.