Deportivo Garcilaso v Club Deportivo Los Chankas: analysis and our pick
Primera División · tomorrow 01:00 · Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Deportivo Garcilaso looking for a response
Deportivo Garcilaso have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–4 away defeat at FBC Melgar and a 0–1 home defeat to Sport Huancayo. Club Deportivo Los Chankas have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over ADT and a 0–0 away draw with Atletico Grau.
The head-to-head favours Deportivo Garcilaso
In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Deportivo Garcilaso, 2 draws, 1 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0–1 Deportivo Garcilaso (4 May 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 45%. Deportivo Garcilaso score 2.0 and concede 1.6 a game, Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0.8 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.0 = 2.8 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Deportivo Garcilaso · 56%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 78%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Deportivo Garcilaso have the highest probability (56%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 78% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Deportivo Garcilaso — last game: Away to FBC Melgar (2-4) they had 39% of the shots (14 to 22, on target 4-10). From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 4 from 10 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 31% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Club Deportivo Los Chankas — last game: Against ADT (2-1) they had 60% of the shots (12 to 8, on target 3-2). From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 39% of the shots and 27% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 36% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 2 theirs.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Double chance X2 2.62 → 2.25 (-14.1%, backed) · Over 3.5 2.75 → 3.00 (+9.1%, drifting) · Under 1.5 4.00 → 3.75 (-6.2%, backed) · Double chance 1X 1.11 → 1.17 (+5.4%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.