Deportes Tolima v Deportivo Pasto: analysis and our pick

Deportivo Pasto have a chance to respond

Deportes Tolima have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Águilas Doradas and a 2–3 away defeat at Jaguares. Deportivo Pasto have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–3 away defeat at Atletico Nacional and a 0–1 home defeat to Alianza Valledupar.

The head-to-head favours Deportes Tolima

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Deportes Tolima, 0 draws, 2 for Deportivo Pasto, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Deportivo Pasto 0–2 Deportes Tolima (14 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 60%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 50%. Deportes Tolima score 1.0 and concede 1.4 a game, Deportivo Pasto 0.2 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.0 = 2.6 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Deportes Tolima · 49%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 75%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Deportes Tolima have the highest probability (49%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 75% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Deportes Tolima — last game: Away to Águilas Doradas (1-2) they had 40% of the shots (6 to 9, on target 3-3). From 3 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 21% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Deportivo Pasto — last game: Away to Atletico Nacional (0-3) they had 20% of the shots (4 to 16, on target 0-5) and 35% possession. No shots on target, conceded 3 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 31% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 10% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Deportivo Pasto) 7.00 → 8.00 (+14.3%, drifting) · Double chance X2 2.62 → 2.75 (+5%, drifting) · 1 (Deportes Tolima) 1.45 → 1.40 (-3.4%, backed) · X (draw) 4.20 → 4.33 (+3.1%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.