Club Tijuana v Santos Laguna: analysis and our pick

Santos Laguna have a chance to respond

Club Tijuana have won 0, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–2 away draw with Toluca and a 0–0 home draw with Puebla. Santos Laguna have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over U.N.A.M. - Pumas and a 5–0 home win over Club Queretaro.

An even head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Club Tijuana, 1 draw, 2 for Santos Laguna, with 3.2 goals a game. Most recently: Club Tijuana 1–2 Santos Laguna (9 Mar 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 55%. Club Tijuana score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game, Santos Laguna 2.6 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.4 = 3.0 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Club Tijuana · 43%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 82%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Club Tijuana have the highest probability (43%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 82% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Club Tijuana — last game: Away to Toluca (2-2) they had 29% of the shots (12 to 30, on target 4-6) and 24% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 6 on target. 15′–30′: pressed with 80% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 60′–75′: under 86% of the pressure → conceded on 61′, 65′, scored on the break on 75′. Over the last 5 they averaged 39% of the shots and 41% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 30% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents. Santos Laguna — last game: Against U.N.A.M. - Pumas (2-0) they had 64% of the shots (9 to 5, on target 2-1) and 65% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 0 from 1 on target. 🟥 Red card on 2′ for U.N.A.M. - Pumas (Nathanael Ananias): the opponent played with ten for ~88 minutes, from very early on, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 67% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 43% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 20% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 3 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 2.5 2.20 → 2.25 (+2.3%, drifting) · Over 2.5 1.65 → 1.62 (-1.8%, backed).