Club Sp. San Lorenzo v Cerro Porteno: analysis and our pick
Division Profesional - Clausura · tomorrow 00:30 · Estadio Gunther Vogel. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Cerro Porteno have a chance to respond
Club Sp. San Lorenzo have won 0, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–3 away defeat at Sportivo Luqueno and a 2–2 away draw with Cerro Porteno. Cerro Porteno have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Sportivo Ameliano and a 2–2 home draw with Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
The head-to-head favours Cerro Porteno
In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Club Sp. San Lorenzo, 2 draws, 3 for Cerro Porteno, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Cerro Porteno 2–2 Club Sp. San Lorenzo (15 Oct 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 65%. Club Sp. San Lorenzo score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game, Cerro Porteno 1.8 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 0.9 + 1.6 = 2.5 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Cerro Porteno · 51%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 54%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Cerro Porteno have the highest probability (51%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 54% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Club Sp. San Lorenzo — last game: Away to Sportivo Luqueno (2-3) they had 29% of the shots (10 to 24, on target 3-8). From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 3 from 8 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 44% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 28% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Cerro Porteno — last game: Against Sportivo Ameliano (2-2) they had 50% of the shots (12 to 12, on target 7-6). From 7 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 6 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Cerro Porteno). Over the last 4 they averaged 54% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 44% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Over 2.5 1.90 → 1.85 (-2.6%, backed) · Under 2.5 1.90 → 1.95 (+2.6%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.