Club Queretaro v Cruz Azul: analysis and our pick
Liga MX · tomorrow 03:00 · Estadio La Corregidora. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Cruz Azul have a chance to respond
Club Queretaro have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–2 away defeat at Atletico San Luis and a 0–5 away defeat at Santos Laguna. Cruz Azul have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at CF Pachuca and a 5–0 home win over FC Juarez.
The head-to-head favours Cruz Azul
In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Club Queretaro, 2 draws, 3 for Cruz Azul, with 2.6 goals a game. Most recently: Club Queretaro 1–1 Cruz Azul (22 Apr 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 50%. Club Queretaro score 1.2 and concede 1.6 a game, Cruz Azul 2.6 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.7 = 3.1 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Cruz Azul · 44%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 83%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Cruz Azul have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 83% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Club Queretaro — last game: Away to Atletico San Luis (1-2) they had 43% of the shots (9 to 12, on target 4-4). From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 45% of the shots and 40% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 28% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Cruz Azul — last game: Away to CF Pachuca (2-1) they had 48% of the shots (11 to 12, on target 5-5) and 56% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 60% of the shots and 56% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 48% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 2.50 → 2.62 (+4.8%, drifting) · Under 3.5 1.50 → 1.44 (-4%, backed) · Under 1.5 4.50 → 4.33 (-3.8%, backed) · Under 2.5 2.20 → 2.15 (-2.3%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.