Club Nacional v Liverpool Montevideo: analysis and our pick

Club Nacional in good form

Club Nacional have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 3–2 home win over Deportivo Maldonado and a 3–0 home win over Rentistas. Liverpool Montevideo have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Cerro Largo and a 1–0 home win over Penarol.

The head-to-head favours Club Nacional

In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for Club Nacional, 1 draw, 0 for Liverpool Montevideo, with 3.2 goals a game. Most recently: Liverpool Montevideo 1–3 Club Nacional (20 Apr 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 65%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 45%. Club Nacional score 2.2 and concede 0.4 a game, Liverpool Montevideo 1.6 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.2 = 2.6 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Club Nacional · 41%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 76%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Club Nacional have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 76% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Club Nacional — last game: Against Deportivo Maldonado (3-2) they had 64% of the shots (9 to 5, on target 5-3). From 5 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 3 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 57% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 67% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 22% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Liverpool Montevideo — last game: Against Penarol (1-0) they had 67% of the shots (10 to 5, on target 3-0). From 3 shots on target they scored 1, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Penarol). Over the last 4 they averaged 62% of the shots and 75% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 47% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 80% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Liverpool Montevideo) 3.70 → 3.50 (-5.4%, backed) · Not both to score 1.83 → 1.91 (+4.4%, drifting) · Double chance X2 1.80 → 1.73 (-3.9%, backed) · Under 1.5 3.50 → 3.40 (-2.9%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.