Club America v CF Pachuca: analysis and our pick
Liga MX · tomorrow 03:05 · Estadio Banorte. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
CF Pachuca have a chance to respond
Club America have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 5–2 away win at Atlas and a 5–3 away win at Leon. CF Pachuca have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–2 home defeat to Cruz Azul and a 1–2 away defeat at Monterrey.
The head-to-head favours Club America
In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Club America, 2 draws, 1 for CF Pachuca, with 1.0 goals a game. Most recently: CF Pachuca 0–0 Club America (19 Jan 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 70%. Club America score 2.2 and concede 1.6 a game, CF Pachuca 1.4 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.0 = 2.5 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Club America · 47%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 55%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Club America have the highest probability (47%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 55% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (14%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Club America — last game: Away to Atlas (5-2) they had 38% of the shots (14 to 23, on target 6-6) and 44% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 5, conceded 2 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 50% of the shots and 62% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 46% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 53% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs. CF Pachuca — last game: Against Cruz Azul (1-2) they had 52% of the shots (12 to 11, on target 5-5) and 44% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 57% of the shots and 45% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 28% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Over 3.5 2.25 → 2.50 (+11.1%, drifting) · Under 1.5 5.00 → 4.50 (-10%, backed) · Under 2.5 2.40 → 2.25 (-6.2%, backed) · Over 2.5 1.53 → 1.62 (+5.9%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.