Cibao v Moca: analysis and our pick

Cibao in good form

Cibao have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Vega Real and a 7–0 home win over Atlántico. Moca have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Jarabacoa and a 1–2 home defeat to Universidad O&M.

The head-to-head favours Moca

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Cibao, 2 draws, 2 for Moca, with 1.8 goals a game. Most recently: Moca 2–1 Cibao (14 Sept 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 60%, Over 2.5 45%, both teams scored 50%. Cibao score 2.4 and concede 0.2 a game, Moca 0.6 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 0.7 = 2.2 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Cibao · 56%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 63%). Most likely score: 1–0.

Why these picks?

Cibao have the highest probability (56%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–0 is the most likely score (16%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Cibao — last game: Against Atlántico (7-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 1 they averaged null% of the shots.. Moca — last game: Against Jarabacoa (1-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 2 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.