Besiktas v Istanbul Basaksehir: analysis and our pick
Süper Lig · tomorrow 18:00 · Tupras Stadium. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Istanbul Basaksehir have a chance to respond
Besiktas have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–2 home draw with Crystal Palace and a 0–2 away defeat at Trabzonspor. Istanbul Basaksehir have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Gaziantep FK and a 0–0 away draw with Konyaspor.
The head-to-head favours Besiktas
In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Besiktas, 2 draws, 1 for Istanbul Basaksehir, with 2.4 goals a game. Most recently: Istanbul Basaksehir 2–3 Besiktas (15 Feb 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 60%. Besiktas score 1.8 and concede 2.0 a game, Istanbul Basaksehir 1.6 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 2.1 + 1.0 = 3.1 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Besiktas · 62%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 83%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Besiktas have the highest probability (62%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 83% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Besiktas — last game: Against Crystal Palace (2-2) they had 38% of the shots (5 to 8, on target 2-3) and 59% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 3 on target. 🟥 Red card on 77′ for Besiktas (Umit Akdag): they played with ten for ~13 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 59% of the shots and 49% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 36% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Istanbul Basaksehir — last game: Against Gaziantep FK (2-1) they had 54% of the shots (14 to 12, on target 6-4). From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 47% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.