Austin II v Los Angeles FC II: analysis and our pick

Austin II in good form

Austin II have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over The Town and a 2–0 away win at St. Louis City II. Los Angeles FC II have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–2 away draw with Houston Dynamo FC II and a 2–3 away defeat at Minnesota United II.

An even head-to-head

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Austin II, 1 draw, 2 for Los Angeles FC II, with 2.6 goals a game. Most recently: Austin II 2–0 Los Angeles FC II (8 Jun 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 60%. Austin II score 1.6 and concede 0.6 a game, Los Angeles FC II 2.4 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 1.3 = 3.3 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Austin II · 53%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 64%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Austin II have the highest probability (53%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 64% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Austin II — last game: Away to St. Louis City II (2-0) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. Over the last 3 they averaged null% of the shots.. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.