Atletico Nacional v Independiente Medellin: analysis and our pick

Atletico Nacional in good form

Atletico Nacional have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Deportivo Pasto and a 0–1 away defeat at Cucuta. Independiente Medellin have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–2 home defeat to Once Caldas and a 2–3 away defeat at Atletico Nacional.

The head-to-head favours Atletico Nacional

In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for Atletico Nacional, 1 draw, 0 for Independiente Medellin, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Atletico Nacional 3–2 Independiente Medellin (15 Oct 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 65%. Atletico Nacional score 2.0 and concede 0.8 a game, Independiente Medellin 1.2 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.0 = 2.8 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Atletico Nacional · 56%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 78%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Atletico Nacional have the highest probability (56%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 78% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Atletico Nacional — last game: Against Deportivo Pasto (3-0) they had 80% of the shots (16 to 4, on target 5-0) and 65% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 3, faced no shots on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 60% of the shots and 63% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 15% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Independiente Medellin — last game: Against Once Caldas (0-2) they had 45% of the shots (9 to 11, on target 3-5). From 3 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 5 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 52% of the shots and 47% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 33% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Atletico Nacional) 1.80 → 1.75 (-2.8%, backed) · X (draw) 3.70 → 3.75 (+1.4%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.