Atlas v Puebla: analysis and our pick
Liga MX · tomorrow 01:00 · Estadio Jalisco. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Puebla have a chance to respond
Atlas have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–5 home defeat to Club America and a 2–0 away win at Necaxa. Puebla have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–4 home defeat to Monterrey and a 0–0 away draw with Club Tijuana.
The head-to-head favours Atlas
In the last 5 meetings: 4 wins for Atlas, 0 draws, 1 for Puebla, with 4.2 goals a game. Most recently: Atlas 3–4 Puebla (10 Jul 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 40%, both teams scored 65%. Atlas score 1.8 and concede 1.8 a game, Puebla 0.6 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.5 + 1.4 = 2.9 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Atlas · 37%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 80%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Atlas have the highest probability (37%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 80% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Atlas — last game: Against Club America (2-5) they had 62% of the shots (23 to 14, on target 6-6) and 56% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 5 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 56% of the shots and 52% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 38% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 41% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 2 for opponents. Puebla — last game: Against Monterrey (1-4) they had 46% of the shots (12 to 14, on target 4-6) and 40% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 4 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 42% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 17% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Puebla) 4.75 → 5.25 (+10.5%, drifting) · Over 3.5 3.00 → 2.75 (-8.3%, backed) · Double chance X2 2.10 → 2.25 (+7.1%, drifting) · Under 1.5 3.75 → 4.00 (+6.7%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.