Volos v Panathinaikos: analysis and our pick

Volos looking for a response

Volos have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with Levadiakos and a 2–3 away defeat at Aris Thessalonikis. Panathinaikos have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 5–1 away win at Kairat Almaty and a 5–1 home win over Asteras Tripolis.

The head-to-head favours Panathinaikos

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Volos, 0 draws, 4 for Panathinaikos, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Panathinaikos 2–1 Volos (14 Dec 2025).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 65%. Volos score 1.2 and concede 2.2 a game, Panathinaikos 2.6 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 0.8 + 1.7 = 2.5 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Panathinaikos · 57%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 54%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Panathinaikos have the highest probability (57%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 54% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Volos — last game: Away to Levadiakos (0-0) they had 24% of the shots (4 to 13, on target 1-4). From 1 shots on target they scored 0, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). 🟥 There was a red card (Volos). Over the last 5 they averaged 38% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target. They turn 40% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 55% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 2 theirs, 1 for opponents. Panathinaikos — last game: Away to Kairat Almaty (5-1) they had 48% of the shots (11 to 12, on target 6-2) and 58% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 5, conceded 1 from 2 on target. 30′–45′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 67% of the pressure → goal on 47′, 57′. Over the last 5 they averaged 66% of the shots and 73% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 43% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 36% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 4.50 → 5.50 (+22.2%, drifting) · 1 (Volos) 8.50 → 10.00 (+17.6%, drifting) · Double chance 1X 3.00 → 3.50 (+16.7%, drifting) · Over 3.5 2.50 → 2.20 (-12%, backed).