Union St. Gilloise v Cercle Brugge: analysis and our pick

Union St. Gilloise in good form

Union St. Gilloise have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 4–0 home win over Hapoel Beer Sheva and a 3–0 home win over Nijlen. Cercle Brugge have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Sporting Hasselt and a 1–2 home defeat to Anderlecht.

The head-to-head favours Union St. Gilloise

In the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Union St. Gilloise, 2 draws, 1 for Cercle Brugge, with 2.2 goals a game. Most recently: Cercle Brugge 1–1 Union St. Gilloise (26 Dec 2025).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 50%. Union St. Gilloise score 2.2 and concede 0.4 a game, Cercle Brugge 1.2 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 0.9 = 2.9 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Union St. Gilloise · 62%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 80%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Union St. Gilloise have the highest probability (62%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 80% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Union St. Gilloise — last game: Against Hapoel Beer Sheva (4-0) they had 83% of the shots (29 to 6, on target 15-4) and 69% possession. From 15 shots on target they scored 4, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 4 they averaged 72% of the shots and 80% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 4). They turn 24% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 25% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Cercle Brugge — last game: Against Anderlecht (1-2) they had 54% of the shots (13 to 11, on target 7-6). From 7 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 6 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 49% of the shots and 49% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 4). They turn 24% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 6.00 → 5.50 (-8.3%, backed) · 2 (Cercle Brugge) 8.00 → 7.50 (-6.2%, backed) · X (draw) 5.00 → 4.75 (-5%, backed) · Over 3.5 2.10 → 2.20 (+4.8%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.