Sporting CP v Academico Viseu: analysis and our pick
Primeira Liga · today 22:30 · Estádio José Alvalade. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Academico Viseu have a chance to respond
Sporting CP have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–3 home defeat to LASK Linz and a 2–0 away win at Lens. Academico Viseu have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Fátima and a 2–1 home win over Estoril.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 65%, both teams scored 60%. Sporting CP score 2.0 and concede 1.4 a game, Academico Viseu 1.4 and 0.6. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.4 = 3.2 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Sporting CP · 44%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Sporting CP have the highest probability (44%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Sporting CP — last game: Against LASK Linz (2-3) they had 58% of the shots (15 to 11, on target 4-7) and 62% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 3 from 7 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 48% of the shots and 45% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Academico Viseu — last game: Against Estoril (2-1) they had 50% of the shots (15 to 15, on target 6-9). From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 9 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 31% of the shots and 38% of the shots on target. They turn 47% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 8% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 2.5 2.60 → 3.10 (+19.2%, drifting) · Under 1.5 6.00 → 7.00 (+16.7%, drifting) · X (draw) 5.75 → 6.50 (+13%, drifting) · Over 3.5 2.10 → 1.83 (-12.9%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.