Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax: analysis and our pick
Eredivisie · today 17:45 · Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Ajax have a chance to respond
Sparta Rotterdam have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–2 home win over Willem II and a 3–3 away draw with GO Ahead Eagles. Ajax have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–0 home win over Atalanta and a 5–2 away win at Groningen.
The head-to-head favours Ajax
In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Sparta Rotterdam, 3 draws, 2 for Ajax, with 3.6 goals a game. Most recently: Ajax 4–0 Sparta Rotterdam (14 Mar 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 80%, both teams scored 75%. Sparta Rotterdam score 1.8 and concede 3.0 a game, Ajax 2.2 and 1.4. The Poisson model expects 1.3 + 2.8 = 4.1 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Ajax · 67%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 77%). Most likely score: 1–2.
Why these picks?
Ajax have the highest probability (67%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 77% from the same lambdas. 1–2 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Sparta Rotterdam — last game: Against Willem II (3-2) they had 63% of the shots (22 to 13, on target 8-4). From 8 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 2 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 46% of the shots and 46% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 30% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 43% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 5. Ajax — last game: Against Atalanta (2-0) they had 57% of the shots (20 to 15, on target 6-0) and 62% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 2, faced no shots on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 63% of the shots and 68% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 44% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Sparta Rotterdam) 5.50 → 6.25 (+13.6%, drifting) · Under 2.5 3.10 → 3.40 (+9.7%, drifting) · X (draw) 4.75 → 5.00 (+5.3%, drifting) · Double chance 1X 2.50 → 2.62 (+4.8%, drifting).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.