PSV Eindhoven v Feyenoord: analysis and our pick
Eredivisie · today 15:30 · Philips Stadion. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
PSV Eindhoven looking for a response
PSV Eindhoven have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–0 away win at FC Porto and a 1–2 away defeat at ADO Den Haag. Feyenoord have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at Real Betis and a 4–3 away win at Telstar.
The head-to-head favours PSV Eindhoven
In the last 5 meetings: 5 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 0 draws, 0 for Feyenoord, with 3.6 goals a game. Most recently: PSV Eindhoven 3–0 Feyenoord (1 Feb 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 65%. PSV Eindhoven score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game, Feyenoord 2.8 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 2.1 + 2.1 = 4.2 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Feyenoord · 40%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 79%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Feyenoord have the highest probability (40%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 79% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (8%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
PSV Eindhoven — last game: Away to FC Porto (1-0) they had 56% of the shots (18 to 14, on target 3-4). From 3 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 45% of the shots and 40% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 35% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 24% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Feyenoord — last game: Away to Real Betis (0-1) they had 36% of the shots (12 to 21, on target 2-10) and 52% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 10 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 41% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 21% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 9.00 → 8.00 (-11.1%, backed) · 2 (Feyenoord) 3.25 → 3.00 (-7.7%, backed) · Double chance X2 1.80 → 1.70 (-5.6%, backed) · 1 (PSV Eindhoven) 2.00 → 2.05 (+2.5%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.