OFI v PAOK: analysis and our pick

OFI looking for a response

OFI have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 0–2 home defeat to Bayer Leverkusen and a 3–4 away defeat at Kalamata. PAOK have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Iraklis 1908 and a 1–3 home defeat to Kalamata.

The head-to-head favours PAOK

In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for OFI, 1 draw, 3 for PAOK, with 3.2 goals a game. Most recently: PAOK 0–0 OFI (2 Sept 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 45%. OFI score 1.2 and concede 2.6 a game, PAOK 1.8 and 1.0. The Poisson model expects 1.4 + 1.8 = 3.3 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · PAOK · 46%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 64%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

PAOK have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 64% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

OFI — last game: Against Bayer Leverkusen (0-2) they had 15% of the shots (6 to 33, on target 2-15) and 37% possession. From 2 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 15 on target. 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: under 87% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: under 96% of the pressure → conceded on 35′, 37′. Over the last 5 they averaged 28% of the shots and 22% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 30% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 5. Red cards: 1 theirs. PAOK — last game: Against Iraklis 1908 (2-1) they had 64% of the shots (18 to 10, on target 3-3). From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 3 on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Iraklis 1908). Over the last 5 they averaged 63% of the shots and 58% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 38% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (OFI) 5.25 → 4.50 (-14.3%, backed) · X (draw) 3.50 → 3.75 (+7.1%, drifting) · Double chance 1X 2.10 → 2.05 (-2.4%, backed) · Double chance 12 1.28 → 1.25 (-2.3%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.