NEC Nijmegen v Groningen: analysis and our pick

Groningen have a chance to respond

NEC Nijmegen have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 4–2 away win at Dinamo Zagreb and a 2–2 home draw with Fortuna Sittard. Groningen have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–5 home defeat to Ajax and a 5–1 away win at Excelsior.

The head-to-head favours NEC Nijmegen

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for NEC Nijmegen, 0 draws, 2 for Groningen, with 3.4 goals a game. Most recently: Groningen 2–1 NEC Nijmegen (10 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 95%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 80%. NEC Nijmegen score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game, Groningen 2.6 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.8 + 1.9 = 3.7 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Groningen · 41%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 72%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Groningen have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 72% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

NEC Nijmegen — last game: Away to Dinamo Zagreb (4-2) they had 48% of the shots (15 to 16, on target 5-10) and 42% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 2 from 10 on target. 0′–15′: under 100% of the pressure → the defence held. 30′–45′: under 90% of the pressure → conceded on 33′, 37′, scored on the break on 45′. 45′–60′: pressed with 85% of the pressure → goal on 54′. Over the last 5 they averaged 57% of the shots and 52% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 32% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 27% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Groningen — last game: Against Ajax (2-5) they had 52% of the shots (16 to 15, on target 5-11). From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 5 from 11 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 47% of the shots and 52% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 48% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 36% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 6.00 → 6.50 (+8.3%, drifting) · 2 (Groningen) 2.80 → 3.00 (+7.1%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.70 → 2.88 (+6.7%, drifting) · 1 (NEC Nijmegen) 2.30 → 2.15 (-6.5%, backed). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.