Motherwell v Hearts: analysis and our pick

Motherwell looking for a response

Motherwell have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5, including a 2–3 away defeat at Kilmarnock and a 0–2 home defeat to Celtic. Hearts have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at Trabzonspor and a 1–7 away defeat at Celtic.

The head-to-head favours Hearts

In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Motherwell, 3 draws, 2 for Hearts, with 3.0 goals a game. Most recently: Motherwell 1–1 Hearts (9 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 60%. Motherwell score 0.6 and concede 2.4 a game, Hearts 1.6 and 2.2. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.7 = 3.2 goals.

Our pick

Away win (2) · Hearts · 39%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 63%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Hearts have the highest probability (39%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 63% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Motherwell — last game: Away to Kilmarnock (2-3) they had 47% of the shots (14 to 16, on target 6-6). From 6 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 3 from 6 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 40% of the shots and 35% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 15% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 32% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Hearts — last game: Away to Trabzonspor (0-2) they had 48% of the shots (10 to 11, on target 1-5) and 39% possession. From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 5 on target. 🟥 Red card on 90′ for Trabzonspor (S. Lopes Cabral): the opponent played with ten for ~1 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 63% of the shots and 55% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 36% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 61% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: 1 (Motherwell) 3.10 → 3.30 (+6.5%, drifting) · Not both to score 2.25 → 2.38 (+5.8%, drifting) · 2 (Hearts) 2.15 → 2.05 (-4.7%, backed) · Double chance 1X 1.67 → 1.73 (+3.6%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.