Monaco v Lille: analysis and our pick

Monaco in good form

Monaco have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over Freiburg and a 0–1 away defeat at Lorient. Lille have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 2–4 home defeat to Galatasaray and a 1–1 home draw with Stade Brestois 29.

No recent head-to-head

The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 60%. Monaco score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game, Lille 1.2 and 1.8. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 1.1 = 2.7 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · Monaco · 46%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 77%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

Monaco have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 77% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (13%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

Monaco — last game: Against Freiburg (3-0) they had 48% of the shots (10 to 11, on target 6-1) and 48% possession. From 6 shots on target they scored 3, conceded 0 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 52% of the shots and 59% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 47% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 31% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Lille — last game: Against Galatasaray (2-4) they had 58% of the shots (14 to 10, on target 5-4) and 55% possession. From 5 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 4 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 43% of the shots and 43% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 50% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 56% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.