Manchester United v Bournemouth: analysis and our pick
Premier League · tomorrow 16:00 · Old Trafford. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Bournemouth have a chance to respond
Manchester United have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 1–4 away defeat at Como and a 1–1 away draw with Leeds. Bournemouth have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5, including a 3–0 home win over AC Milan and a 2–0 home win over Sunderland.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 90%, Over 2.5 60%, both teams scored 60%. Manchester United score 0.8 and concede 1.8 a game, Bournemouth 1.8 and 1.2. The Poisson model expects 2.0 + 1.6 = 3.5 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Manchester United · 46%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 68%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Manchester United have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 68% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Manchester United — last game: Away to Como (1-4) they had 54% of the shots (13 to 11, on target 4-8) and 45% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 4 from 8 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 57% of the shots and 44% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 20% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 36% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Bournemouth — last game: Against AC Milan (3-0) they had 87% of the shots (20 to 3, on target 7-0) and 64% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 3, faced no shots on target. 🟥 Red card on 27′ for AC Milan (Mike Maignan): the opponent played with ten for ~63 minutes, from very early on, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 73% of the shots and 73% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 33% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 60% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 2 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: 2 (Bournemouth) 3.25 → 3.10 (-4.6%, backed) · 1 (Manchester United) 2.15 → 2.20 (+2.3%, drifting) · Double chance 1X 1.33 → 1.36 (+2.3%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.