Liverpool v Brighton: analysis and our pick
Premier League · tomorrow 16:00 · Anfield. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Liverpool in good form
Liverpool have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–3 home win over Villarreal and a 2–1 away win at Brentford. Brighton have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5, including a 0–0 away draw with FK Jablonec and a 5–0 home win over Crystal Palace.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 45%. Liverpool score 2.6 and concede 2.0 a game, Brighton 2.8 and 0.0. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 2.2 = 3.4 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Brighton · 59%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 66%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Brighton have the highest probability (59%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 66% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (10%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Liverpool — last game: Against Villarreal (4-3) they had 61% of the shots (22 to 14, on target 7-5). From 7 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 3 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 61% of the shots and 64% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 43% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 59% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Brighton — last game: Away to FK Jablonec (0-0) they had 71% of the shots (20 to 8, on target 3-4) and 72% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 0, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). 0′–15′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → no goal. 30′–45′: pressed with 69% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 73% of the shots and 73% of the shots on target (on top in 4 of 5). They turn 47% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 0% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 2 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Red cards: 1 theirs.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Not both to score 2.50 → 2.62 (+4.8%, drifting) · Both teams score 1.50 → 1.44 (-4%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.