Goztepe v Çorum FK: analysis and our pick
Süper Lig · today 18:00. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Çorum FK have a chance to respond
Goztepe have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Kocaelispor and a 4–0 away win at Eyupspor. Çorum FK have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 home win over Rizespor and a 3–0 away win at Gaziantep FK.
The head-to-head favours Çorum FK
In the last 2 meetings: 0 wins for Goztepe, 1 draw, 1 for Çorum FK, with 2.5 goals a game. Most recently: Çorum FK 1–1 Goztepe (27 Jan 2024).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 75%, both teams scored 65%. Goztepe score 2.4 and concede 1.8 a game, Çorum FK 2.8 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.6 + 2.3 = 4.0 goals.
Our pick
Away win (2) · Çorum FK · 52%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 76%). Most likely score: 1–2.
Why these picks?
Çorum FK have the highest probability (52%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 76% from the same lambdas. 1–2 is the most likely score (8%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Goztepe — last game: Away to Kocaelispor (2-1) they had 44% of the shots (7 to 9, on target 3-1). From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 58% of the shots and 61% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 43% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 50% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs, 1 for opponents. Çorum FK — last game: Against Rizespor (2-1) they had 50% of the shots (10 to 10, on target 4-4). From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 54% of the shots and 63% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 42% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 21% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 4.33 → 4.00 (-7.6%, backed) · Over 3.5 2.62 → 2.75 (+5%, drifting) · Over 2.5 1.67 → 1.73 (+3.6%, drifting) · Under 2.5 2.15 → 2.08 (-3.3%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.