Genoa v Venezia: analysis and our pick
Serie A · today 16:00 · Luigi Ferraris. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Genoa looking for a response
Genoa have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–2 away defeat at AS Roma and a 2–1 home win over Fiorentina. Venezia have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Napoli and a 1–3 away defeat at Atalanta.
The head-to-head favours Genoa
In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Genoa, 0 draws, 2 for Venezia, with 2.8 goals a game. Most recently: Genoa 2–0 Venezia (17 Feb 2025).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 55%. Genoa score 0.8 and concede 1.4 a game, Venezia 1.2 and 2.4. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.5 = 3.2 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Genoa · 41%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 84%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Genoa have the highest probability (41%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 84% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Genoa — last game: Away to AS Roma (0-2) they had 39% of the shots (9 to 14, on target 1-5). From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 2 from 5 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 61% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 25% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 58% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Venezia — last game: Against Napoli (1-0) they had 24% of the shots (9 to 29, on target 4-10). From 4 shots on target they scored 1, the defence faced 10 shots on target and held (no goals). Over the last 5 they averaged 42% of the shots and 34% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 29% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 29% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Under 2.5 1.91 → 1.80 (-5.8%, backed) · 2 (Venezia) 3.50 → 3.30 (-5.7%, backed) · 1 (Genoa) 2.10 → 2.20 (+4.8%, drifting) · Over 2.5 1.91 → 2.00 (+4.7%, drifting). Careful: the market is backing a different outcome from our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.