Estoril v Moreirense: analysis and our pick
Primeira Liga · today 17:30 · Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Estoril looking for a response
Estoril have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 1–1 away draw with Salgueiros and a 1–2 away defeat at Academico Viseu. Moreirense have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–1 away defeat at AVS and a 0–1 home defeat to Gil Vicente.
The head-to-head favours Moreirense
In the last 5 meetings: 0 wins for Estoril, 3 draws, 2 for Moreirense, with 3.6 goals a game. Most recently: Moreirense 1–0 Estoril (20 Apr 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 75%, Over 2.5 40%, both teams scored 50%. Estoril score 0.6 and concede 1.2 a game, Moreirense 0.8 and 1.6. The Poisson model expects 1.2 + 1.2 = 2.4 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Estoril · 35%. Goals market: Under 2.5 (Two goals at most, 57%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Estoril have the highest probability (35%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Under 2.5 at 57% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (15%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Estoril — last game: Away to Academico Viseu (1-2) they had 50% of the shots (15 to 15, on target 9-6). From 9 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 2 from 6 on target. Over the last 4 they averaged 50% of the shots and 57% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 4). They turn 8% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 28% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 1 theirs. Moreirense — last game: Away to AVS (0-1) they had null% of the shots (0 to 0, on target 0-0). No shots on target, faced no shots on target. 🟥 There was a red card (Moreirense). Over the last 5 they averaged 39% of the shots and 37% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 36% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 42% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 1 theirs.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Double chance X2 1.80 → 2.00 (+11.1%, drifting) · 2 (Moreirense) 3.70 → 4.10 (+10.8%, drifting) · 1 (Estoril) 1.95 → 1.80 (-7.7%, backed) · Double chance 1X 1.28 → 1.20 (-6.3%, backed). The market is moving the same way as our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.