Crystal Palace v Newcastle: analysis and our pick
Premier League · tomorrow 16:00 · Selhurst Park. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Crystal Palace looking for a response
Crystal Palace have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 2–2 away draw with Besiktas and a 0–5 away defeat at Brighton. Newcastle have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5, including a 0–1 home defeat to Aston Villa and a 1–4 away defeat at Coventry.
No recent head-to-head
The two sides have not met recently; the view rests on form and the model.
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 85%, Over 2.5 70%, both teams scored 60%. Crystal Palace score 1.4 and concede 2.6 a game, Newcastle 1.0 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 2.1 + 1.7 = 3.8 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Crystal Palace · 46%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 73%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Crystal Palace have the highest probability (46%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 73% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (9%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Crystal Palace — last game: Away to Besiktas (2-2) they had 62% of the shots (8 to 5, on target 3-2) and 41% possession. From 3 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 2 from 2 on target. 🟥 Red card on 77′ for Besiktas (Umit Akdag): the opponent played with ten for ~13 minutes, which changes the picture of the game. Over the last 5 they averaged 40% of the shots and 42% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 47% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 62% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 4. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. Newcastle — last game: Against Aston Villa (0-1) they had 52% of the shots (16 to 15, on target 1-3). From 1 shots on target they scored 0, conceded 1 from 3 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 53% of the shots and 52% of the shots on target (on top in 2 of 5). They turn 22% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 48% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 2.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Not both to score 2.50 → 2.62 (+4.8%, drifting) · Both teams score 1.50 → 1.44 (-4%, backed).
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.