Celta Vigo v Real Betis: analysis and our pick
La Liga · today 17:15 · Municipal de Balaídos. Form, head-to-head, goals — plus the pick, the goals market and the most likely score from MyGoal90's model.
Celta Vigo in good form
Celta Vigo have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 2–1 away win at Celtic and a 2–1 home win over Alaves. Real Betis have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 1–0 home win over Feyenoord and a 2–5 home defeat to Barcelona.
An even head-to-head
In the last 5 meetings: 1 win for Celta Vigo, 3 draws, 1 for Real Betis, with 3.2 goals a game. Most recently: Real Betis 1–1 Celta Vigo (15 Mar 2026).
What the numbers say about goals
In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 70%, Over 2.5 50%, both teams scored 60%. Celta Vigo score 2.0 and concede 0.8 a game, Real Betis 2.4 and 2.0. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.4 = 3.1 goals.
Our pick
Home win (1) · Celta Vigo · 42%. Goals market: Over 1.5 (At least two goals, 84%). Most likely score: 1–1.
Why these picks?
Celta Vigo have the highest probability (42%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 1.5 at 84% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (12%). Probabilities, not guarantees.
A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.
How hard they pressed lately
Celta Vigo — last game: Away to Celtic (2-1) they had 73% of the shots (22 to 8, on target 4-4) and 56% possession. From 4 shots on target they scored 2, conceded 1 from 4 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 43% of the shots and 41% of the shots on target (on top in 1 of 5). They turn 56% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 15% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 1. Real Betis — last game: Against Feyenoord (1-0) they had 64% of the shots (21 to 12, on target 10-2) and 48% possession. From 10 shots on target they scored 1, conceded 0 from 2 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 50% of the shots and 53% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 36% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 34% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 3. Red cards: 1 theirs.
What the odds say
The biggest moves since the opening: Not both to score 2.10 → 2.20 (+4.8%, drifting) · 1 (Celta Vigo) 3.20 → 3.10 (-3.1%, backed) · Double chance 1X 1.62 → 1.67 (+3.1%, drifting) · X (draw) 3.30 → 3.40 (+3%, drifting). The market is moving the same way as our pick.
This article was written automatically from MyGoal90's data (API-Football, odds, Betfair Exchange). Nothing is copied from any outlet.