AZ Alkmaar v FC Twente: analysis and our pick

AZ Alkmaar in good form

AZ Alkmaar have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–0 away win at Ararat-Armenia and a 2–2 away draw with Cambuur. FC Twente have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, including a 4–1 away win at Lincoln Red Imps FC and a 1–2 home defeat to Utrecht.

The head-to-head favours AZ Alkmaar

In the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for AZ Alkmaar, 1 draw, 1 for FC Twente, with 3.6 goals a game. Most recently: AZ Alkmaar 2–2 FC Twente (3 May 2026).

What the numbers say about goals

In the two teams' recent games: Over 1.5 80%, Over 2.5 55%, both teams scored 55%. AZ Alkmaar score 1.8 and concede 1.0 a game, FC Twente 2.8 and 0.8. The Poisson model expects 1.7 + 1.6 = 3.3 goals.

Our pick

Home win (1) · AZ Alkmaar · 40%. Goals market: Over 2.5 (Three goals or more, 64%). Most likely score: 1–1.

Why these picks?

AZ Alkmaar have the highest probability (40%) in the Poisson/Dixon-Coles model, which weighs season, last 10, last 5 and head-to-head. Over 2.5 at 64% from the same lambdas. 1–1 is the most likely score (11%). Probabilities, not guarantees.

A statistical view from MyGoal90's data — ✓/✗ after the match. 21+ · Play responsibly.

How hard they pressed lately

AZ Alkmaar — last game: Away to Ararat-Armenia (4-0) they had 65% of the shots (17 to 9, on target 9-4) and 61% possession. From 9 shots on target they scored 4, the defence faced 4 shots on target and held (no goals). 15′–30′: pressed with 100% of the pressure → goal on 21′, 27′. 30′–45′: pressed with 75% of the pressure → no goal. 45′–60′: pressed with 69% of the pressure → no goal. Over the last 5 they averaged 61% of the shots and 62% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 31% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 28% of theirs. The defence kept a clean sheet 1 time(s) despite facing 3+ shots on target. Conceded 2+ in 2. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents. FC Twente — last game: Away to Lincoln Red Imps FC (4-1) they had 86% of the shots (25 to 4, on target 7-1) and 72% possession. From 7 shots on target they scored 4, conceded 1 from 1 on target. Over the last 5 they averaged 67% of the shots and 67% of the shots on target (on top in 3 of 5). They turn 64% of their shots on target into goals, opponents 36% of theirs. Conceded 2+ in 1. Red cards: 0 theirs, 1 for opponents.

What the odds say

The biggest moves since the opening: Under 1.5 6.00 → 5.50 (-8.3%, backed) · Under 2.5 2.70 → 2.50 (-7.4%, backed) · Over 3.5 2.10 → 2.20 (+4.8%, drifting) · Over 2.5 1.44 → 1.50 (+4.2%, drifting).